TRADE UPDATE

Food & Agriculture
Feb. 25, 2025

By Kristy Goodfellow, Vice President of Trade and Industry Affairs, Sophia Vaccaro, CRA Trade Intern, and Charlotte McCourt, CRA Communications Intern

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HIGHLIGHTS

  • Tariffs:
    • Public comments are due March 11 on President Donald Trump’s “Fair and Reciprocal Plan on Trade.”
    • A new USDA report assesses the impact of Turkey’s tariffs on nuts, including retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports and new tariff increases for all WTO members.
  • Trump Administration: Howard Lutnick was confirmed as Secretary of Commerce, and Jamieson Greer could receive a Senate vote on his nomination to be the next U.S. Trade Representative as early as this week.
  • US-China:
    • A new National Security Presidential Memorandum references CFIUS use in protecting technology, agriculture, American farmland, and potentially outward investments, including in biotechnology.
    • News is just coming out on China’s new “No. 1 document,” which outlines agriculture and rural development priorities. Chinese state media reports continued emphasis on self-sufficiency.
  • North America: Registration is now open for Cultivating Competitiveness: Positioning North America as a Strategic Agricultural Bloc, a CRA-sponsored event put on by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on April 10.

“It’s about a historic structural readjustment of a trading system that simply doesn’t work, particularly for America. We run trillion-dollar trade deficits each year … It’s all a product of a global trading system which takes advantage of us. President Trump will not tolerate that.”

—– Peter Navarro, White House Senior Counselor for Trade & Manufacturing, on CNN

Trump Tariffs

STATUS OF NEW TARIFFS

  • USTR announced a public comment period in support of President Donald Trump’s “Fair and Reciprocal Plan on Trade” memorandum. Comments are due to USTR by March 11, 2025.
  • High-level discussions continue between leaders in Canada, Mexico, and the United States as the March 4 extension of the 25% across-the-board tariffs approaches.
  • USTR announced Friday it is soliciting comments on its proposal to administer fees and restrictions in response to a Section 301 investigation of China’s targeting of maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for dominance.
  • Steel and aluminum tariffs are scheduled to take effect on March 4.

USDA ASSESSES EFFECT OF TURKEY’S TARIFFS ON NUTS

  • USDA’s Economic Research Service released a new report that estimates the impact of Turkey’s tariffs on U.S. nuts, including almonds and walnuts.
  • Turkey is one of the largest markets for U.S. almonds and other tree nuts. In 2024, the U.S. exported $518 million of tree nuts to Turkey.
  • In Nov. 2023, Turkey increased its most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff on almonds and walnuts. This tariff increase is in addition to the retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. nuts Turkey has maintained since they were originally imposed in 2018 in response to U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs.
  • Using a global economic model, the authors found Turkey’s increase in the MFN tariff rates decreased U.S. almond exports to Turkey by 19.4% while dropping walnut exports by 26.6%.
  • The same model found that retaliatory tariffs decreased U.S. almond exports to Turkey by $16 million, pistachios by $18.5 million, and walnuts by $16.5 million.
  • The authors note Turkey’s decrease in tree-nut imports is much larger than the U.S.’s decrease in tree-nut exports. This result indicates that increasing tariff rates impact Turkey’s domestic markets more than those of exporters.

Trump Administration

CONFIRMATIONS

  • The Senate confirmed Howard Lutnick as the next Secretary of Commerce in a 51-45 party-line vote held on Feb. 18.
  • On Friday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed cloture on the nomination of Jamison Greer to be the next U.S. Trade Representative, setting up possible confirmation vote as early as this week.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (left) and President Donald Trump (right) shake hands on Feb. 21 at the White House. (Photo: White House)

US-China

PRESIDENTIAL MEMO ADDRESSES CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN AGRICULTURE

  • Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum on Feb. 21 aimed at promoting foreign investment while protecting America’s national security interest, particularly from China.
  • The memo states the “Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States (CFIUS) will be used to restrict Chinese investments in strategic U.S. sectors like technology, critical infrastructure, healthcare, agriculture, energy, raw materials, and others.”
  • The memo states the Administration will “protect farmland and real estate near sensitive facilities,” without referencing expanded authorities.
  • The memo also notes the Administration will consider new and expanded restrictions on U.S. outbound investments, including on biotechnology.

CHINA OUTLINES AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES

  • China updated its annual “No.1 document,” which outlines agriculture and rural development priorities.
  • Chinese state media reports the plan will improve subsidy programs for major grain-producing areas and promote biotechnology cultivation, among other priorities.
  • Details and analysis of the document are expected in the days and weeks ahead.

North America

CSIS ANNOUNCES NORTH AMERICAN AGRICULTURE EVENT

  • The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) announced a day-long event — Cultivating Competitiveness: Positioning North America as a Strategic Agricultural Bloc.
  • The event, scheduled for April 10, will include breakout sessions on the growth in the North American agricultural sector under NAFTA, agricultural competitiveness, addressing transportation and logistical challenges, emerging technologies, and agricultural innovation.
  • Registration for the event, which is sponsored by the Corn Refiners Association, is currently open.