TRADE UPDATE

Food & Agriculture
March 4, 2025

By Kristy Goodfellow, Vice President of Trade and Industry Affairs, Sophia Vaccaro, CRA Trade Intern, and Charlotte McCourt, CRA Communications Intern

HIGHLIGHTS

• Trade: USDA estimates the U.S. agriculture trade deficit will hit $49 billion in fiscal year 2025, a larger deficit than what was estimated in November.
• Tariffs: Broad 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional 10% tariffs on China are set to begin on March 4.
• Transportation: A public comment period is open until March 24 for proposed measures responding to a Section 301 investigation into China’s shipbuilding.
• Trump Administration: Jamieson Greer was confirmed as U.S. Trade Representative.
• Congress:
  • Senators reintroduced the Level the Playing Field 2.0 Act, which aims to improve the trade remedy system and make it easier for petitioners to file new cases when production is shipped overseas.
  • A pair of bills were introduced to prevent American agricultural land from being purchased by foreign adversaries.
  • Legislation in both chambers calls for a trade agreement with the U.K.
  • During a Senate Ag Committee hearing, a panel of agriculture producers highlighted the disruptive effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, trade imbalances, and the need for fair and enforced trade agreements.
  • A House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee focused on addressing unfair trade practices, tariff circumvention, and the need for trade agreement enforcement.
• International Organizations: A new report explores what it would take to achieve reliable and widespread carbon footprint information on agri-food products.

“We’ve already started the critical work to turn this around … We are committed to getting a fair deal for American agriculture in trade. As you know, this is a top priority for this White House and we’re going to get it done. I know that many in our industry are concerned, and rightly so, about the effect of tariffs on farmers. But I want you to know that your concerns are heard and that I will always be your greatest champion, second only to President Trump.”

—Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum

Trade

USDA UPDATES TRADE OUTLOOK

• USDA’s latest Outlook for U.S. Agriculture Trade report projects an agriculture trade deficit of $49 billion in fiscal year 2025.
• The report projects FY25 U.S. agricultural exports will be $170.5 billion, up $500 million from the November forecast as higher grain and feed exports offset reductions to the oilseed outlook. Corn export estimates increased by $1.4 billion due to higher volumes and unit values.
• Mexico is forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports at a record $30.2 billion, a $300 million increase from the previous forecast.
• U.S. agricultural imports in FY25 are forecast at $219.5 billion, an increase of $4.0 billion from the November forecast.
• The next update will be released May 29.

Tariffs

STATUS OF NEW TARIFFS

• Broad 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional 10% tariffs on China are set to begin on March 4.
• Chinese imports are already subject to a 10% tariffs stemming from President Donald Trump’s original trade policy action aimed at addressing his immigration and drug import concerns.
• Duties on Canadian and Mexican shipments were first scheduled to go into effect in February, but were delayed until March 4 following concessions from Canada and Mexico.
• The White House did exempt de minimis shipment from the new tariffs in Executive Orders on tariffs to Canada and Mexico on March 2.
• Trump says new tariffs on “external product” are scheduled to go into effect April 2.
• In a post on Truth Social, Trump specifically noted U.S. farmers should “get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States.”

Transportation

SECTION 301 CHINA SHIPBUILDING

• In response to the Section 301 Investigation of China’s Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sector for Dominance, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is proposing to impose certain fees and restrictions.
• The changes would impact international maritime transport services related to Chinese ship operators and Chinese-built ships. USTR is aiming to promote the transport of U.S. goods on U.S. vessels.
• A public comment period is open until March 24.
• USTR will also facilitate a public hearing on March 24.
• Agriculture Transportation Coalition Executive Director Peter Friedmann expressed concerns about the current Section 301 proposal during the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum.
  • Friedman cited estimates that building ships in the United States would be 5-15 times more expensive than in China.
  • Friedman also noted the higher cost of staffing ships with U.S. labor.

Trump Administration

CONFIRMATIONS

• The Senate confirmed Jamieson Greer as the U.S. Trade Representative on Feb. 26 in a 56-43 vote, largely along party lines.
• One Republican (Kentucky’s Rand Paul) opposed the nomination, and five Democrats (John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, John Hickenlooper of Colorado, Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island) voted to confirm Greer.

Congress

SENATORS REINTRODUCE LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD 2.0 TRADE BILL

• Sens. Todd Young (R-IN) and Tina Smith (D-MN) reintroduced the Level the Playing Field 2.0 Act, legislation to strengthen U.S. trade remedy laws.
• The bill responds to China’s trade practices, specifically its Belt and Road Initiative, to ensure that the United States can outcompete the Chinese Communist Party.
• The proposed law would provide the Department of Commerce with more tools to stop circumvention tactics, including providing the department with the authority to apply countervailing duty law to subsidies provided by a government to a company operating in a foreign company.
• The bill was first introduced in June 2023 by Young and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

BILLS INTRODUCED TO PROTECT AMERICAN AGRICULTURE LAND FROM FOREIGN ENTITIES

• Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) introduced the Protecting the American Agriculture from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2025 in the House and Senate, respectively.
• The bill adds the Secretary of Agriculture to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and empowers USDA with the authority to review land purchases by foreign entities.
• Marshall said “having an agriculture presence on CFIUS helps the committee better understand the risks foreign investment can pose to farmers and ranchers.”
• Newhouse also introduced the No American Land for Communist China Act, which prohibits China’s purchase of land adjacent to federally owned land. This overlaps with a National Security Presidential Memorandum from last week.

BICAMERAL LEGISLATION FOR TRADE AGREEMENT WITH UK INTRODUCED

• New legislation calls on the Trump Administration to pursue a trade agreement with the United Kingdom.
• A bipartisan, bicameral group of lawmakers recently reintroduced the Undertaking Negotiations on Investment and Trade for Economic Dynamism (UNITED) Act.
• The bill – led by Reps. Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Jim Himes (D-CT) and Sens. Jerry Moran (R-KS) and Chris Coons (D-DE) – would authorize the administration, in consultation with Congress, to negotiate and enter into a comprehensive trade agreement with the United Kingdom.
• The lawmakers emphasized the value of strengthening the economic relationship with the United Kingdom, stating that it would expand market access and bring more opportunities for American producers and businesses.
• Smith and Himes first introduced the UNITED Act in May 2023.

SECOND SENATE AG HEARING ON AG ECONOMY

• A Feb. 26 Senate Agriculture Committee hearing continued the discussion of farmers’ challenges to better inform the next Farm Bill.
• The panel highlighted the disruptive effects of potential retaliatory tariffs, trade imbalances, and the need for fair and enforced trade agreements.
• Witnesses discussed the impacts of higher labor costs due to changes to the H-2A visa program, how this has put additional stress on farmers, and how it can lead to specialty crop growers going out of business.
• Senators also discussed issues with Proposition 12, concerns about the Packers and Stockyards Act, and USDA’s plan to combat avian influenza.
• Senators addressed strengthening specialty crop insurance and providing better risk management tools for farmers, as well as outdated programs and the impact of funding freezes.

HOUSE AND WAYS TRADE SUBCOMMITTEE HEARING

• On Feb. 25, the House and Ways Trade Subcommittee held a hearing on American Trade Enforcement Priorities. Key topics included addressing unfair trade practices, confronting tariff circumvention through transshipment, and security threats from China.
• Witnesses agreed that stronger enforcement mechanisms are needed for current and future trade agreements, emphasizing that weak enforcement can allow other countries to take advantage of the United States.
• The Level the Playing Field 2.0 Act was frequently brought up as a method to address some of the shortcomings of current trade enforcement regulations, such as expediting anti-dumping and countervailing investigations.
• It was also noted that, despite other countries’ willingness, the United States has not been actively pursuing new trade agreements and should look to engage more.

International Organizations

OECD REPORT ON CARBON FOOTPRINTS OF AGRI-FOOD PRODUCTS

• A new report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development explores what it would take to achieve reliable and widespread carbon footprint information on agri-food products.
• The report, Measuring Carbon Footprints of Agri-Food Products, identifies eight essential building blocks: reporting standards and guidelines; science-based methods for estimation; farm calculation tools; databases with secondary data; communicating the carbon footprint data along the supply chain; ensuring the integrity and quality of the calculations; scaling up carbon footprint calculations while keeping costs low; and updating these elements as new scientific techniques become available.
• The report provides an assessment of the current state of each building block and what needs to be added to achieve reliable and widespread product carbon footprints.
• The authors suggest that international organizations such as the OECD play a role as conveners to aid with cooperation and coordination between different communities to achieve the shared goal of carbon footprints for food systems.