TRADE UPDATE

Food & Agriculture
June 10, 2025

By Kristy Goodfellow, Vice President of Trade and Industry Affairs, Ameya Khanapurkar, Project and Policy Coordinator, Ellen McDonough, CRA Trade Intern, and Aliza Hart, CRA Communications Intern

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HIGHLIGHTS

  • USDA: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins traveled to Italy, where she advocated for improved market access to Italy and the European Union. Rollins also met with leaders of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP).
  • Tariffs and Bilateral Negotiations:
    • The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative reported ongoing bilateral negotiations, specifically in the context of “Reciprocal Tariffs” and including meetings with China underway in London.
    • Reps. Randy Feenstra (R-IA) and Adrian Smith (R-NE) urged the Trump Administration to prioritize expanding agricultural market access in India.
  • World Trade Organization:
    • Canada submitted a request for the World Trade Organization to establish a dispute panel related to Chinese import duties on certain agricultural and fisheries products, which were imposed by China in response to Canadian tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.
    • Joseph Barloon, USTR’s WTO Ambassador nominee, affirmed he would support offensive WTO dispute settlement cases for U.S. agriculture during his Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing.
  • Multilateral Organizations: The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development cited rising protectionism and tariffs as a cause of slow growth projections in a report that was published ahead of the upcoming OECD Ministerial Council Meeting 2025.
  • Trade Data:
    • USDA estimates the U.S. agricultural trade deficit will increase to $49.5 billion in fiscal year 2025, a larger deficit than what was estimated in February.
    • The USDA issued its 2024 Agricultural Export Yearbook, which summarizes trade by product group and export market.

“The global economy has shifted from a period of resilient growth and declining inflation to a more uncertain path. Our latest economic outlook shows that today’s policy uncertainty is weakening trade and investment, diminishing consumer and business confidence, and curbing growth prospects.”

—OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann

USDA

ROLLINS LEADS DELEGATION TO ITALY

  • Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins traveled to Italy last week to promote U.S. agricultural exports and advocate for improved market access to Italy and the European Union.
  • Rollins met with Italian agricultural ministers, U.S. diplomatic officials in Rome, and key Italian agricultural stakeholders to discuss current successes and future trade opportunities between the two countries.
  • According to a USDA press release, Italy’s agriculture industry is a more than $80 billion market, with $1.7 billion worth of products coming from the United States.
  • In another part of her trip, Rollins met with World Food Programme Executive Director Cindy McCain to discuss the utilization of U.S. food commodities globally. Rollins also sat down with U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Director General Qu Dongyu to reiterate the importance of FAO’s Codex Alimentarius and International Plant Protection Convention to agricultural trade.
Source: USDA

Tariffs and Bilateral Negotiations

BILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS

  • The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative reported ongoing bilateral negotiations despite uncertainty over the Trump Administration’s ability to use International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authority.
  • Bilateral meetings with China begin June 9 in London. The talks are set to include U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and USTR Jamieson Greer.

PUSH TO PRIORITIZE MARKET ACCESS IN INDIA

  • Reps. Randy Feenstra (R-IA) and Adrian Smith (R-NE) submitted a letter to Greer urging the administration to negotiate access for American ethanol, distillers’ dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and soybean meal in India.
  • Indian lawmakers have expressed interest in adopting high-volume and mutually beneficial agricultural trade negotiations with the United States.
  • Officials who have aligned with President Donald Trump’s goals to increase demand for American agriculture products and reduce the trade deficit estimate that “further reducing existing market barriers would allow for over $400 million of additional exports.”

World Trade Organization

CANADA REQUESTS WTO INVESTIGATION INTO AG TARIFFS

  • On June 5, Canada submitted a request for the World Trade Organization to establish a dispute panel related to Chinese import duties on certain agricultural and fisheries products, which were imposed by China this spring in response to Canadian tariffs on China-made electric vehicles.
  • According to Canada, the additional tariffs are discriminatory and include a “100% tariff on canola seed oil, canola meal, and peas and a 25% tariff on certain fish, seafood, and pork products.”
  • The request for WTO support follows failed negotiations with China to resolve the market access issues.
  • Chinese officials stated “the impositions of tariffs on certain Canadian products are legitimate measures taken in accordance with Chinese domestic law.”

SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE NOMINATION HEARING FOR USTR WTO AMBASSADOR

  • Joseph Barloon, the Trump Administration’s nominee for USTR WTO Ambassador,  appeared before the Senate Finance Committee, where he emphasized his WTO dispute litigation experience as USTR General Counsel and the need to reform the WTO.
  • Barloon stated that he believes the WTO dispute settlement system can serve as a tool to gain foreign market access for U.S. farmers.
  • Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) praised Barloon’s experience as former General Counsel for USTR, while Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) expressed concerns regarding the Trump administration’s use of trade threats and Barloon’s disclosure of previous work for foreign entities.

Multilateral Organizations

ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD) ECONOMIC REPORT AND MINISTERIAL

  • The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development projects weakening global economic prospects in its new Economic Outlook report, with global growth projected to decline from 3.3% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026.
  • The report claims that the reasons for lower global economic growth are due to increases in protectionism and tariffs that are “fueling inflation, disrupting supply chains and rattling financial markets.”
  • The Economic Outlook report was discussed at last week’s OECD ministerial meeting in Paris. Ahead of the meetings, Greer met with European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič to discuss reciprocal trade agreements.

Trade Data

USDA UPDATES TRADE OUTLOOK

  • USDA’s latest Outlook for U.S. Agriculture Trade report projects the 2025 agriculture trade deficit to be $49.5 billion, a $500 million increase from previous estimates.
  • The report estimates U.S. agricultural exports will remain unchanged at $170.5 billion.
  • Estimates for imports were revised upward to $220 billion, an increase of $500 million from the February forecast.
  • While Mexico is projected to remain the largest market for U.S. agricultural exports with a new estimate of $30 billion, growth in the North American export market is driven by increases among Central and South American countries.
  • Despite this projection, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the overall U.S. Goods and Services trade deficit decreased in April 2025, from $138.3 billion to $61.6 billion.

USDA UPDATES EXPORT YEARBOOK

  • On May 28, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service released its Agricultural Export Yearbook, which summarizes the top U.S. export destinations and commodities.
  • According to the report, Mexico surpassed China and Canada to become the top market for U.S. agricultural exports at a record $30.3 billion, a 7% increase from 2023.
  • The report notes export volumes of several bulk commodities increased, but lower commodity prices dampened the overall value of exports and limited growth to 1%.
  • Among the top U.S. agricultural exports, rice, non-beverage ethanol, food preparation, and tree nuts experienced the highest percentage increases.