TRADE UPDATE

Food & Agriculture
June 17, 2025

By Kristy Goodfellow, Vice President of Trade and Industry Affairs, Ameya Khanapurkar, Project and Policy Coordinator, Ellen McDonough, CRA Trade Intern, and Aliza Hart, CRA Communications Intern

HIGHLIGHTS

• Tariffs and Bilateral Negotiations: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trade Secretary Scott Bessent, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer met with Chinese officials for a second round of trade negotiations.
• Transportation: The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative reopened comments for modifications to the proposed actions under the Section 301 investigation of China’s Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sector for Dominance.
• Trade Promotion: USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service led a trade mission to Peru from June 9-12 and is accepting applications until June 17 for its trade mission to Taiwan, taking place Sept. 29 – Oct. 1.
• Congress:
  • Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke before the House Agriculture Committee on her efforts to solve issues for U.S. farmers and producers, as well as internal challenges in the USDA.
  • On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Judge Stephen Vaden as USDA’s Deputy Secretary.
• Trade Data: An analysis from North Dakota State University’s Center for Agriculture Policy and Trade Studies found that American agriculture exports to China fell 55% in April.
• Food Commodity Market: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations released its biannual report on global food markets.

“I do believe with every fiber of my being that this era of unlimited or unprecedented prosperity for the ag community is just around the corner, because of these trade negotiations.”

—Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins testifying before the House Agriculture Committee

Tariffs and Bilateral Negotiations

US-CHINA NEGOTIATIONS END IN LONDON

• Senior U.S. trade officials met with Chinese negotiators last week in London to negotiate tariffs and slow the trade war.
• During their last meeting in May, the two countries agreed to a 90-day pause on the 100% base tariffs, but have since imposed increasingly retaliatory tariffs.
• China requested increased access to U.S. technology in exchange for reducing its export restrictions on rare-earth minerals.  
• According to a Truth Social post from President Donald Trump, the United States will implement a total of 55% tariffs on Chinese imports, while China will implement 10% tariffs on U.S. goods.
• Officials are hopeful the negotiated tariff truce framework will provide an opportunity for further trade deals that increase U.S. agricultural product sales to China.
• In a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who attended the negotiations, told lawmakers that the administration is “pushing substantial purchase agreements for American farmers.”
• Simultaneously, a U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the administration’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act could remain in effect, pausing the Court of International Trade’s ruling until appellate arguments, which are scheduled for July 31.

Transportation

COMMENTS OPEN FOR SECTION 301 PROCESS

• The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative opened a public comment period for the proposed modifications in response to the Section 301 investigation of China’s Targeting of the Maritime, Logistics, and Shipbuilding Sector for Dominance.
• The investigation has raised concerns for food and agriculture industries that rely on affordable and dependable transportation to deliver their product and remain competitive.
• On June 6, the USTR announced changes to the Section 301 investigation, eliminating the suspension of liquefied natural gas export licenses and changing the vessel fee structures as part of its trade action plan.
• The deadline for submission is July 7, 2025.

Trade Promotion

PERU TRADE MISSION

• USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) led a trade mission to Lima, Peru, from June 9-12.
• Peru is the fourth-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in South America.
• The trade mission’s goal was to increase U.S. agriculture exports to decrease the $3.66 billion bilateral agricultural trade deficit.

TAIWAN TRADE MISSION

• FAS is accepting applications until June 17 for its trade mission to Taiwan, which will occur Sept. 29–Oct. 1.
• U.S. agricultural exports to Taiwan reached $3.8 billion in 2024, half of which are consumer-oriented products.

Congress

HOUSE HEARING ON AGRICULTURE DEPARTMENT OVERSIGHT

• On Wednesday, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke before the House Agriculture Committee about her efforts to solve issues for U.S. farmers and producers, as well as internal challenges for USDA.
• Reps. Angie Craig (D-MN) and Randy Feenstra (R-IA) discussed new market opportunities after losing access for agricultural products in China. Rollins cited her recent trade missions and expressed plans to negotiate trade deals in South America and Europe.
• Rollins was also questioned on the delay in the USDA quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agriculture Trade Forecast, which demonstrated a growing trade deficit in farm goods. Lawmakers raised concerns about information transparency from USDA; Rollins noted her understanding that “we wanted to make sure it was complete, that the citations were correct.”
• Lawmakers also expressed concern about the trade war causing higher costs of inputs for farmers and the need for reductions in tariffs with close trading partners.

VADEN CONFIRMED AS USDA DEPUTY SECRETARY

• On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Judge Stephen Vaden as USDA’s Deputy Secretary.
• Rollins praised Vaden’s experience on the U.S. Court of International Trade and his prioritization of American farmers.

Trade Data

JUNE 2025 NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY AGRICULTURAL TRADE MONITOR

• North Dakota State University recently launched a new monthly Agricultural Trade Monitor.
• The first edition, published last week, highlighted a 55% decrease in agriculture exports to China in April. Despite the lowering of tariffs in May, the report emphasizes that U.S. agricultural products still face significant tariffs in China.
• The authors point out that the $5 billion loss in exports to China outpaces gains made elsewhere.

Food Commodity Market

FAO RELEASES BIANNUAL FOOD COMMODITY REPORT

• A new report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations indicates a relatively optimistic outlook for food commodity markets, with production of commodities, except sugar, anticipated to increase.
• However, the report also indicated that rising conflicts, geopolitical tensions, uncertainties in trade policy, and economic setbacks could negatively affect the commodities trade outlook.
• As of May 2025, the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 127.7 points, down 0.8% from April 1. Despite being 6% higher than the previous year, the FFPI remained 20.3% below its peak in March 2022.