TRADE UPDATE

Food & Agriculture
July 1, 2025

By Kristy Goodfellow, Vice President of Trade and Industry Affairs, Ameya Khanapurkar, Project and Policy Coordinator, Ellen McDonough, CRA Trade Intern, and Aliza Hart, CRA Communications Intern

SUBSCRIBE

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Congress:
    • Senate Republicans continued work on a budget reconciliation bill this week. The bill includes $285 million in annual agricultural trade promotion funding.
    • Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) proposed new legislation that would provide financial assistance to American farmers and producers experiencing losses from the impacts of tariffs.
  • Tariffs and Bilateral Negotiations:
    • President Donald Trump indicated, along with confirmation from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, that further progress had been made on trade agreements with China. However, the White House later clarified that what was signed was not an agreement on tariffs.
    • The Trump Administration has not been clear on how it will treat the July 9 “reciprocal tariff” deadline. Meanwhile, the Administration furiously negotiates bilaterally, not only to address the looming reciprocal tariffs, but also various Section 232 tariffs and investigations.
  • World Trade Organization:
    • The United States responded to concerns about U.S. tariffs, subsidies, and export promotion programs during the World Trade Organization’s Committee on Agriculture (CoA) meeting, held June 23-24.
    • There does not appear to be a clear path forward on agriculture negotiations in the runup to the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference based on a readout of the June 25 Committee on Agriculture Special Session meeting.
    • At a WTO Dispute Settlement Meeting, the United States dismissed a motion to fill vacant Appellate Body slots; meanwhile, Canada’s request for a WTO investigation on unfair Chinese import duties toward agricultural products moves forward.
  • Transportation: U.S. food and agriculture traders continue to engage the Trump Administration on the proposed actions in the Section 301 Investigation of China’s Targeting the Maritime, Logistics and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance, seeking to better understand and raise concerns about the actions and implementation.
  • USDA:
    • The Department of Agriculture announced a new slate of appointees, including Edward Newburn, Senior Advisor in the Office of the Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs.
    • USDA issued its United States and Global Macroeconomic Projections Report from 2024 to 2034.
  • Trade Remedies:
    • Rezolex, Ltd. Co., filed a new antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petition with the U.S. International Trade Commission on oleoresin paprika from India.
    • The U.S. ITC will vote and conclude its vanillin from China AD/CVD investigation on Monday to determine whether an industry in the United States is materially injured or threatened with material injury.

“As President Trump works to fix unfair trade practices, I’m moving to make sure our farmers receive the support they need.”

—Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA)

Congress

SENATE BUDGET RECONCILIATION BILL AND AGRICULTURE TRADE

  • Senate Republicans are working through the steps to advance a major legislative package to address President Donald Trump’s policy agenda despite internal GOP division.
  • The Bill includes “Supplemental Agricultural Trade Promotion Program,” which the bill says the Agriculture Secretary “shall carry out to encourage the accessibility, development, maintenance, and expansion of commercial export markets for United States agricultural commodities.”
  • The bill includes $285 million in annual agricultural trade promotion funding starting in the year 2027, which the Secretary shall make available using Commodity Credit Corporation Funding.
  • Trump Administration leaders and Capitol Hill Republicans are aiming to advance the measure through the House and Senate by Friday, July 4.
  • Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) introduced a bill that would financially support farmers impacted by export market losses.
  • The bill proposes a fund, named Tariff Reponses and Damages to Exports (TRADE), that would distribute revenue collected from tariffs on foreign agricultural products to qualifying American agricultural producers.

Tariffs and Bilateral Negotiations

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCES PROGRESS IN CHINA TRADE DEAL

BILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS, HIGHLIGHTING UPDATES ON CANADA

  • The Trump Administration has sent mixed signals on how it will treat the July 9 “reciprocal tariff” deadline. Meanwhile, the Administration furiously negotiates bilaterally, not only to address the looming reciprocal tariffs, but also various Section 232 tariffs and investigations.
  • Notably, in a June 27 Truth Social post, President Trump announced that the United States is “hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately.” The President noted grievances toward Canadian tariffs on dairy products, as well as a new digital-services tax on American technology companies, as reasons for ending negotiations. As of June 29, the Canadian government has removed the digital services tax.

World Trade Organization

COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE AND COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE SPECIAL SESSION

  • The World Trade Organization’s Committee on Agriculture (CoA) met on June 23-24, and the Committee on Agriculture Special Session met on June 25 to discuss ongoing agriculture negotiations.
  • During the CoA meeting, the United States responded to questions from other members related to U.S. tariffs, new domestic support programs, including avian influenza-related initiatives, export credit guarantees, and export promotion programs.
  • International organizations – including the International Grains Council (IGC), the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the World Food Programme (WFP) – contributed information on the unique difficulties faced by least developed countries (LDCs) and net food-importing developing countries (NFIDCs), along with their continuous efforts to mitigate these challenges. The IGC emphasized the importance of open trade and shared the newly developed Wheat Maritime Trade and Food Security Dashboard.
  • Members reviewed the Bali Decision on Tariff Rate Quota administration and discussed ways to improve tariff rate quota effectiveness and transparency issues, such as the inclusion of tariff data in TRQ notifications and eliminating unrelated licensing requirements.
  • During the Committee on Agriculture Special Session, the chair briefed members on his recent consultations, including “prospects for progress” on the 14th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14), scheduled for March 2026. Currently, there does not seem to be convergence on priorities or a path for negotiating.
  • Members held dedicated sessions on the procurement of food at administered prices for public stocks in developing economies and on the proposed Special Safeguard Mechanism.

APPELLATE BODY SELECTIONS AGAIN HALTED BY THE UNITED STATES

  • At a Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) Meeting on June 23, the United States vetoed the selection of WTO appellate body vacancies due to concerns about transparency and overregulation in the WTO.
  • DSB members also agreed to Canada’s request to establish a panel investigating unfair trade practices by China.

Transportation

SECTION 301 CHINA SHIPBUILDING

  • The U.S. food and agriculture traders continue to engage the Trump Administration on the proposed actions in the Section 301 Investigation of China’s Targeting the Maritime, Logistics and Shipbuilding Sectors for Dominance, seeking to better understand the issue and raise concerns about the actions and implementation.
  • This Section 301 investigation and proposed actions came up throughout the 37th annual meeting of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, held on June 16-19 in Tacoma, Washington.
  • North Dakota State University released an economic analysis projecting that shipping costs for U.S. agricultural exporters would increase $6.2 billion annually by 2028 under the new policy. The report notes the cost burden is highest for exporters of dry bulk shipments because of changes to the Annex 1 fee directly targeting Chinese operators.
  • The authors point out the original policy was revised after concerns from the agriculture industry, which significantly reduced export costs from earlier estimates, despite an overall increase.
Chart: Kim, Jiyeon, Matthew Gammans, Shawn Arita, and Sandro Steinbach. “Assessing the Costs to Agricultural Exporters of Section 301 Annex 1 and 2 Fees.” ARPC White Paper 2025-02, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, June 23, 2025.

USDA

USDA ANNOUNCES NEW TRUMP ADMINISTRATION APPOINTMENTS

  • On Wednesday, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced several new appointees to key roles at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
  • Edward Newburn was nominated as Senior Advisor in the Office of the Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs (TFAA). Newburn previously served as Chief of Staff at South Dakota Trade, where TFAA Under Secretary-nominee Luke Lindberg is the President & CEO.

USDA UPDATES GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

  • USDA’s Economic Research Service released its United States and Global Macroeconomic Projections from 2024 to 2034 report on Thursday, which are the benchmark for the 2024 annual USDA Baseline agricultural supply and demand projections and are utilized in USDA projections.
  • According to the report, U.S. GDP is projected to grow an average of 1.8% annually, which is a decrease compared to the previous decade’s annual average of 2.3%.
  • Global real GDP per capita growth is estimated at 1.9% annually, which can be positively impacted by growth in trade and consumer demand, but simultaneously can be negatively impacted by increased supply chain disruptions as the primary inhibitor to growth.
  • The report also notes continued progress on global disinflation, but higher growth in nominal wages than in price inflation signals that upward inflation pressure will continue.

Trade Remedies

PAPRIKA FROM INDIA

  • The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) began the preliminary phase of U.S. injury determination in the antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigation on paprika from India in response to the petition filed by Rezolex.
  • Written submissions containing arguments relevant to this investigation are due to USITC by July 21, 2025.

VANILLIN FROM CHINA